A former Nigerian Army spokesperson and security expert, Sani Usman Kukasheka, has warned against hasty negotiations with bandits in the Northwest, cautioning that premature dialogue could weaken ongoing military efforts, Rising Insecurity and Ransom Payments.
Kukasheka highlighted the alarming increase in kidnappings and ransom payments, pointing to data from SBM Intelligence showing that between July 2023 and June 2024, at least 7,568 people were abducted in 1,130 incidents, with over ₦1.048 billion paid in ransoms. The worst-hit states—Kaduna, Katsina, and Zamfara—continue to experience attacks despite security interventions.
A separate report by Beacon Consult and Intelligence Limited revealed a 138.99% surge in abductions nationwide in 2024.
Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that between May 2023 and April 2024, over 614,937 Nigerians lost their lives, and 2.2 million were kidnapped, with ransom payments surpassing ₦2.2 trillion.
Skepticism Over Dialogue with Bandits
Kukasheka expressed concerns that recent calls for dialogue may be a ploy by bandits to relieve military pressure rather than a genuine peace effort. He noted that past amnesty programs, such as the one initiated by former Katsina State Governor Aminu Bello Masari, failed to curb violence, as criminal elements continued their activities.
“With security forces gaining ground, we must scrutinize whether this push for dialogue is a sincere peace initiative or a tactical move by bandits to regroup,” he stated.
Divided Stance Among State Governments
The debate over negotiations has divided state governments. While Kaduna and Niger States have engaged in talks, leading to some stability in areas like Birnin Gwari, Katsina and Zamfara remain opposed, advocating for sustained military action.
Kukasheka aligned with Katsina’s stance, emphasizing that any peace process must involve victims and affected communities.
“Dialogue is only meaningful if bandits are truly remorseful and seek reconciliation, not if they use it to manipulate the system,” he said.
A Holistic Approach to Lasting Peace
Kukasheka stressed that addressing the root causes of banditry—poverty, unemployment, and weak governance—is essential for lasting peace. He called for increased investment in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic empowerment, alongside a unified security strategy that aligns with military operations.
“As security forces continue to make progress, any peace effort must be structured carefully to prevent emboldening those who have terrorized communities for over a decade,” he concluded.